2008 Nov 27th

How Bad Is It? – Part 2

Have Things Really Changed That Much In the Hoboken Condo Market?

by Lori Turoff

It seems like the market has slowed down. But has it? I took a look, by month, of the number of Hoboken condos listed and the number sold. I went all the way back to this time in 2006. Here are the results:

Note – November is only “to date” so it’s less than it should be for the full month.

There has been a downward trend in the number of for sale Hoboken condos since 2 years go. There was a big dip in new listings this September, when all the bad economic news hit the media, but then a spike in October. November is down, so far.

The number of Hoboken condos sold does not show a clear trend. There were an exceptionally large number of closings in March of this year. It may still be too early to see the results of the current economic melt down. Deals that should have been made in September would typically close in November or December. Maybe the low number of condo sales in November is not due to the few missing days, but is a real decline in deal activity.

Absorption rate is a classic way to measure the strength of a real estate market. The average number of Hoboken condos sold each month since the beginning of 2008 has been about 67 condos per month. Right now, there are about 519 Hoboken condo units for sale. At the rate of 67 sales per month, it would take 7.75 months for the current condo inventory in Hoboken to sell out.  Keep in mind that these figures reflect only units on the MLS and not those sold directly by the developer (such as Maxwell Place condos sold by the Toll sales office). But then, the numbers also don’t reflect sales by the sales office either. A 5 month supply of housing at any given time is considered neutral.  Less than that is considered a sellers market, more a buyers market.  According to these figures, Hoboken is not as bad as other areas of the country.  Parts of Florida and Las Vegas have years worth of inventory on hand. The recent drop in interest rates should help increase the rate of sales as well.

  1. jc

    Positive surprise, thank you.

    Lori can you please break down by 1, 2, 3 etc. Bedroom? Thanks

  2. Lori Turoff

    Sure – but later in the week when I have a few minutes.

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