2008 Dec 2nd

Where Is The Hoboken Housing Market Going?

By Lori Turoff – 201 993 9500 or [email protected]

Hoboken Condo Sales & Market Analysis Part 2

Yesterday I posted the sales figures for the month of November. They don’t look too bad. In fact, Hoboken condo sale prices were up in November. Here is the comparison to the past two years:

But that’s only part of the story. Analyzing what sold is certainly useful information but it doesn’t address the properties that have not sold. The number of Hoboken condos still on the market for sale presents a different picture.

The Number Of Hoboken Condos For Sale Continues To Climb

Here two informative charts. The first tracks how many condo units were active, i.e., for sale, at the start of each month:

It is quite apparent that the number of condo units for sale has been soaring. Today, there are 513 active condo units in Hoboken. That’s looking just at the MLS, (which does include MetroStop and some of the other new buildings back on Jackson but does not include Maxwell Place.) If price is determined by supply and demand, the supply of Hoboken condos is growing. It seems that the build up results more from dwindling sales numbers than from an abundance of new units being placed on the market.

An important indicator of the Hoboken real estate market is the number of units sold and the number of units that go under contract during a month. Here are those results:

The trend in listings is downward which helps supress the growth in supply a little bit, but the number of units going under contract and being sold are also decreasing. The question is which is happening faster, the build-up of unsold units bloating inventory or the decrease in new listings which limit inventory? The answer seems to be apparent in the first chart – overall, there are too many properties on the market and not enough demand for them. The result? Markets find equilibrium and prices fall.

So Why Were November Prices Up?

It seems contradictory at first glance for prices to rise when demand is decreasing and supply increasing.
The answer may lie in the properties themselves. If you look at the Hoboken condos that did sell in the month of Novemer, they have a few characteristics that stand out:

The remaining 3 units, from what I can tell, had nothing in particular that stands out as especially attractive, (not price, location, or construction).

Take a look at these 5 “fire sale” units included in the above:

If a Hoboken condo is not drop-dead gorgeous, in a great location, or really and truly priced to sell (and still in a good location and good condition) it just isn’t likely to sell. Buyers are going for the cream of the crop and the bargains – sometimes both.

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