2009 Apr 29th

The Weekly Wednesday Wrap-Up: Hoboken Condo Sales & Activity for the Week of April 29th.

Research, analysis & post by Lori Turoff

The Hoboken Condo Weekly Numbers

A few things struck me as I prepared this today.  First, that we are not far away from breaking the 600 mark in the total number of active units.  Not a good sign.  Next, there are some amazing deals out there.  Whoever bought the 2 bedroom at 904 Jefferson (which I saw and it was lovely) got a great deal.  The price was dropped $100,000!  With regard to the Case Shiller results many of you have been mentioning in the comments – they are taken from stats pertaining to homes in the area – that means all of the surrounding area. Not just Hoboken. Not just condos. They include lots of properties that have no bearing on our results. So I take them for what they are worth – a guide, but not anything definitive. In fact, there’s been some controversy about them in the WSJ. Finally, in all these stats, there is only 1 short sale.  That is a good sign.  So enjoy and more important than ANYTHING if you care about Hoboken and your property value:

Please Go Out and Vote on May 12th!

Here are this weeks stats:

Studio & 1 Bedroom Hoboken Condos:

204  total active – $424,364 average asking price. 93 average DOM.

1 dabos after 36 DOM.

  • 123 Washington – listed at $365k in March; reduced to $350k April 3.

5 sold $366,000 average price.  177 average DOM.

  • 152 6th St – listed at $355k in Oct; reduced to $339k Oct. 31; $319k Jan 9; sold for $314.5k.
  • 1222 Wash – listed at $419k in Oct; reduced to $409k Oct. 28; $395 Oct. 28; $391k Nov. 14; $359k Dec. 8; $339k Jan.2; $318k Jan. 21; dabod at $318k Feb. 10; back on market at $328k Apr 14; short sale approved at $335k on Apr 14; sold for $320k.
  • 307 1st – listed at $479k in Jan; reduced to $459k June 21;  $399k Feb. 6;  dabod at $399 Feb. 20; back on market at $405k April 22; sold for $408k.

10 new listings – average list price $438,050.

13 price reductions.

Two Bedroom Hoboken Condos:

307 total active –  $635,339 average asking price. 109 DOM so far.

6 dabo’d.  54 average DOM

  • 109 Jackson – listed at $530k in March; reduced to $509k April 3; $504k April 9; $499k April 10.
  • 380 Newark – listed at $649k in October; reduced to $629k Nov3; $609k Feb 26; $589k March 24.

5 sold – $467,800 average price.   Average 55 DOM.

  • 210 Jackson listed at $474.9k in Oct.;  reduced to $445k Jan. 7;  $429k Feb. 5;  sold for $420k.
  • 700 1st Street listed at $539k in Nov.;  reduced to $524k Dec. 30;  $505k  Feb. 5;  sold for $475k.9
  • 904 Jefferson listed at $595k in Jan.;  reduced to $575k Jan. 14;  $535K Jan. 16;  $525k Feb. 11;  $510k Feb. 12;  sold for $499k.

23  new listings – average list price $546,321.20 price reductions.

Three Bedroom and Larger Hoboken Condos:

65 active 3BR condos –  $884,125 average asking price.   123 DOM so far.

No dabos.

1  sold. $540,000.  70 DOM.

  • 510 Monroe – listed at $579k in Nov.;  reduced to $564k Jan. 16;  $549k Jan. 22;  sold for $540k.

12  price reductions

4 new listings average list price $663,234.

Hoboken Condo Open Houses

If you are in the market for a Hoboken condo, our Hoboken Open House Google Map is your single best source for locating every open house in Hoboken. It’s posted on Friday every week. The info is updated weekly. If your google search seems to pull up an older version, click on the title link to get the most current map.

Thanks for reading!

  1. D$

    Thanks, JC – I’ll keep you guys posted. I’m using a 3% opportunity cost, so basically your savings keeps pace with normalized inflation. So you know, I didn’t post about 904 Jefferson. The person who did used a fancy black box calculator on the NYT website. It’s a good model, but it’s easy for folks to draw the wrong conclusions without digging into the advanced assumptions.

    Here’s my thought on 904 Jeff. I rent my west-facing 2 BR apartment at 333 River for $2.55 per square foot per month. Let’s assume the comparable rental price is $2,700. That’s $2.65 per square foot. The rental market in that part of town is severely out of whack when you can rent in a waterfront doorman building 5 min. from the PATH for 4 PERCENT LESS per square foot. My guess is that this will self-correct over time, and you’ll start to see rent in that area return to the low-$2,000’s. Consistent with this, my model pegs the breakeven rent for 904 Jefferson at its $499,000 sale price at $2,431 (including parking).

  2. Al Bern

    Lori, thanks for reponse on rents. I use the assumption typically of 20% down, 2% HPI, 2% inflation, and 2% rent increase. I use actual property taxes, 5.0% APR, 30 yr mtg, 0.5% maintenance, 0.5% homeowners insurance, 1.5% renters insurance. 25% tax bracket..Price is detemriend by breakeven period. I like <5 yrs….

    Your comment on rents is dead on! If its really $2900 per month income, then most definitely you should think its worth 490 area….

    I just looked through craigslist for comps…you can get ALOT for $2,500. For $2900-3000, you can rent a 3br, 2bath…I pay 50% more than that now in 333..will be renegotiating though…

    BUT more importantly, the logic is right. Price = Function of (RENTS)

    D$: how does your model compare to the NY times one?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#

  3. Al Bern

    D$, Lori, et al: what do you think of 109 Grand? Unit 206? What do you think it rents for?

    I am guessing $5,500 incl parking; with such high taxes and maintenance, I am ballparking pricing at way way below the offering $1,199,000…notably it was sold for $850,000 in 2002 and I think its fair value at just around $900k.

  4. potential_buyer

    Lovely conversation, as always…

    Many of you may have already seen this, but I didn’t see it posted above so I thought it could be of value to some folks. Essentially, the NYtimes piece went on to state that the sellers in NYC are finally “getting it” and are slashing prices to move inventory. And guess what? It appears to be working (in at least the two examples they mentioned). I see Hoboken coming down a bit, but it hasn’t been as much as I was expecting. So I wait and watch…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/realestate/03deal1.html?ref=realestate

  5. TS

    Al,
    So you think prices are at 2002 levels??

  6. Al Bern

    Heard 2004 from realtor, but I think rents and prices have to converge…it doesn’t makes sense for us to buy a 4 bed went we can rent one for way less…

  7. TS

    Al,
    Well, the unit you referred to actually went into contract this past week. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they didn’t accept a 900k offer (25% off asking). So it seems that it was worth more than you thought.

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