2009 Oct 5th

The September Hoboken Condo Sales Results

Here are the September Sales Results

Not much has changed from last month. Inventory is up, which is not a good thing. We still have about a 9 month supply on hand. Too many condos for sale. It does seem like activity is picking up a bit. Let’s hope it continues.

We are taking our week off after this post so see you all in 10 days. Thanks for reading!

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  1. Mo

    What do you think will happen to prices after the rebate expires in November?? Any effect on sales? In hoboken of course.

  2. stan

    I don’t think we’ll see the rebate expire, I also see that they are pushing for no income requirement, any bouyer(second home etc etc) and 15k credit.

    However with all the people who jumped in for the first time credit, we will see a drop off on the low end. Just like cash for clunkers saw a ridiciulous drop in demand after it wore off.

    I know I know, there is no one in Hoboken who qualifies blah blah blah. imo not true. 150k combined agi helped to put a floor on the declines in this area and certainly in the rest of the country, at least temporarily.

    500k 2/2, joint income of 140 k, 20% down(even 15 or 10) and that place is yours with a quick bump from your friendly taxpayers

  3. potential_buyer

    Agreed – I doubt that the realtor lobbysists are going to let this thing die, despite its huge costs and questionable long-term benefits. We will have to wait and see how this thing plays out, but 9 months of inventory going into the fall/winter doesn’t bode well for the market (my speculation). If they do extend it, I believe they will need to remove some of those restrictions (income, first-time buyers) in order for Hoboken to benefit. Again, I question the long-term gains in spite alleviating the current problems.

  4. homeboken

    The credit is a very expensive short-term fix. I am wondering if the powers that be have considered what long-term impact the HB credit program will be. I think the goverment is training people to expect a subsidy for big purchases.

    I don’t think anyone is arguing for a permanent home buyer credit, but I think that is what the consumer will expect.

    When the credit program is ultimately extinguished, it could cause a drop in demand for homes.

  5. bz

    “When the credit program is ultimately extinguished, it could cause a drop in demand for homes.”

    Not necessarily. If the inventory shrinks to 6-7 months which reflects a fairly balanced market, there’s no need to add incentives to lure buyers. There are plenty of buyers buying for investment-focused purposes and there are also a lot of people buying for other reasons such as personal life changes (job, start family…). Once the market stabilizes and starts to show growth again, the general population will feel optimistic again about home value and start to buy again, especially the middle to high end. The credit plays a very small, if any, roll in these people’s finance.

    Since there’s a trading effect in housing, the lower end needs to start moving, then the whole train will follow. In addition, this credit is only a small part of the recovery strategy, if the job market gets better, income increase keeps up, we will see the attraction from the credit to be less compare to now.

  6. teaorcoffee

    Anyone know why 1025 Maxwell Lane isn’t selling? It’s a nice and spacious unit – I’d buy it myself but it is, sadly, out of my price range. Though it seems to have been on/off the market long enough that I may be able to afford it eventually!

  7. teaorcoffee

    Oops, should have included unit number in above post: 312.

  8. JC

    teaorcoffee: looking really quickly there are 2 units similar size for $50k less.

  9. David

    The credit does not affect Hoboken: if a person is looking at Hoboken, they are unlikely to qualify for the credit.

  10. vreporter

    Nor does the credit have any reasonable meaning for RE prices in areas like Hoboken. In Detroit, you can buy a house for $8,000 these days. :-O

  11. Tiger

    Back from vacation myself. It was so good to take three weeks off :-)

    I see that inventory had built up a bit, but activity seems to be picking up. That seems to be a good thing. Not counting chicken yet, but a 9 month supply seems to be good at this point. Not long time ago, we had almost 1.5 year supply, so that’s a good sign :-)

  12. vreporter

    Tiger,
    One word. WRONG!
    Inventory is not just the listed number from MLS. It ACTUALLY needs to include a shadow number encompassing all the sellers who just gave up on “listing” but have a property to sell at an unrealistic price. The Hoboken number is closer to two years now. The shadow number never used to be significant. Now, it is actually THE number and its transparency (lack of) has got folks like you attending the wrong party. Go back on your vacation. You have time! For every property that ever makes it to closing, three more in the neighborhood will suddenly appear (magically). That’s called inventory.

    Your version is like the jobless numbers that show claims have gone down. They’ve gone down because there aren’t any people left to do so! That’s not a change in trend. That’s the effect of going over a cliff too quickly. “Jobless recovery” is a term for the politicians, not the working public. Those are your home buyers.

  13. lori

    vreporter – I am curious as to the basis for your assertion of a two year supply. Do you have data to support that or is it just your personal opinion?

  14. Tiger

    vreporter,

    enlighten me oh wise one, for you seem to know the works, while my humble uneducated vacation-taking soul is lost. Where is that shadow number? How do I get my hands on it?

    YOU need a vacation my friend, that is, assuming you can afford it.

  15. homeboken

    Lori – A few weeks back I asked you how long an inventory level of 600 represents, and you replied “years”.

    For all of our information, how long (ballpark) do you think inventory at current levels will take to clear?

  16. Tiger

    homeboken, I’m not an expert but I think it really depends on activity. Earlier this year, activity was almost half of what it is right now (even less). I think the difference is that activity picked up a bit, hence inventory started clearing.

    vreporter says that there is shadow inventory (i.e. sellers waiting it out). I can argue also that there is shadow demand (i.e. buyers with money waiting for the dust to settle before buying). I still think we have years for recovery, but I’m glad I don’t see a shortsale or foreclosure sign on every block in Hoboken. Thanksgiving is coming soon, we should all count our blessings.

  17. TS

    Homeboken,

    The standard measure of what you’re looking for is the absorption rate, which is # units on market/# sold per month – the supply component/demand component. In Sept that would give about 8.2 months.

    Of course this doesn’t take into account “shadow inventory” (or “shadow demand” for that matter). To get these most accurate #s you will have to consult the one source in the world who has them, vreporter.

  18. homeboken

    I have to be honest, I was/am pretty bearish on tri-state area real estate, but if the government decides to extend/expand the home-buyer credit I would become much more serious about buying. The income limits have to be removed, but if they were, I think you would see a pretty big boost in demand.

  19. Tiger

    >> To get these most accurate #s you will have to consult the one source in the world who has them, vreporter.

    TS, LMAO! LOL! 😀

  20. Andy

    Homeboken, Dodd was on the sunday circuit talking about how he’s working on the bill as we speak to remove the 1st time condition on the home buyers credit and open it up to anyone including people buying vacation homes. not sure about the income limits but once that happens i’m definately in for a 2nd home somewhere.

  21. JC

    Andy..do you know if that included investment properties? thnx

  22. homeboken

    I think the credit should be used for purhcases of primary residence only. Subsidizing the real estate investment market seems to have no marginal benefit for the overall economy.

    The key for Hoboken is the income limits.

  23. JC

    Homeboken….While it may be true investors or I really should say speculators are a part of the reason we are in this mess, investors have played a large part in buying up the inventory these past few months. Giving them incentive now would only ensure the investors continue to buy and decrease the huge inventory in all markets….which, in my opinion would have be a benefit for the overall economy.

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