2010 Feb 3rd

The Weekly Wednesday Wrap Up – Hoboken Condo Sales & Activity for the Week of Feb. 2

Hoboken Condos Sales & Activity – Week of February 2nd.

Here are this weeks numbers vs. a week’s ago numbers:

To get this report with the MLS links:

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Studio & 1 Bedroom Hoboken Condos:

24 new listings.

193 total active – $376,341 average asking price. Average 75 DOM.

No dabos.

2 sold for an average sales price of $409,500. Average 57 DOM

14 price reductions.

Two Bedroom Hoboken Condos:

20 new listings

215 total listings. Average list price $569,379. Average 97 DOM.

4 dabo’d. Average 57 DOM.

None sold.

10 price reductions.

Three Bedroom and Larger Hoboken Condos:

4 new listings

45 active listings. Average price $1,122,138. Average 135 DOM.

2 dabo’d. 88 average DOM.

3 sold. Average price $997,166. Average 94 DOM.

2 price reductions.

Hoboken Condo Open Houses

If you are in the market for a Hoboken condo, our Hoboken Open House Google Map is your single best source for locating every open house in Hoboken. It’s posted on Friday every week. The info is updated weekly. If your google search seems to pull up an older version, click on the title link to get the most current map. Like this report, due to MLS regulations, to receive the map with the actual links, you will have to request it using the request form on the post. It takes a second.

Want to Receive New Listings & Price Reductions Daily?

If you would like to be emailed the new listings and price reductions each weekday in either 1br, 2br or 3br categories just email us at info@hobokensbest.com letting us know which size(s) you would like and we’ll add you to the daily email list.

A word about that – if you have an ongoing relationship with another agent we are not going to email you. So what is an ongoing relationship? That’s sort of up to you – it assumes you want to keep working with your current agent. It also means someone you’ve been working with on a regular basis and whose services you are happy with and to whom you feel loyalty. We respect that relationship. If that is the case, ask your own agent for listings. If, however, you’ve gone to an open house or you’ve seen several properties with several different agents, that’s not an ongoing relationship. Showing someone a single property, or even a few, does not necessarily a relationship make. You are the consumer – you get to decide with whom you wish to work. If you think the agent who hosted an open house or showed you a property is incompetent or does not meet your needs why would you use that person as your agent? Unless you’ve signed a “buyers agency agreement”, which is highly unusual in Hoboken, find an agent you like, trust and whose advice you respect. It’s your money, no?

You can always contact us at 201 993 9500.
Thanks for reading and, as always, we welcome your comments!
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  1. Tom

    Lori,

    Is this positive data?? Could you please interpret the data for us?

    Thanks.

    Tom

  2. Bill

    Tom, its only a two week period of time we see here and there are no major changes to any of the metrics listed.

    I would say the data is decidedly inconclusive

  3. Lori

    I’ll be posting the January end of month numbers shortly. Maybe that will be more telling.

  4. thoughts

    anything decent in Hoboken – location, size, non-walk up, parking, outdoor space, etc. – or some combination thereof – still does not go cheap. period – end of story. Most Seller’s aren’t budging – just a few here and there. therefore, if you’re buying, too get a nice place at a a good price, you need to get lucky. not a lot of give aways out there…..

    sellers are winning….

  5. FN

    Repeat Sale model

    1. Downloaded previous sales of apts sold in hoboken in 2009
    2. removed all sales below 100k
    3. Sorted by year the current seller bougth the place and calculated Average gain and std deviation
    4. removed all data points that did not fit within the average +/- 2 std deviation. [to Remove outlier, improvements,trashed proptery etc]
    5. Continue to do 4 until all set for each year fit within Avg +/- 2 std deviation
    6.I also removed 4 entries form 2008 that had a corporation invovled and showed loss ot 40% although barely fit the avg – 2 std and was skewing 2008 to average a loss of 20%.

    The result

    Year count price/ price/ avg stdev
    sqft sqft gain
    prev curr (loss)
    sale sale
    2002 10 $310 $413 33% 10%
    2003 17 $358 $442 24% 8%
    2004 31 $443 $483 9% 8%
    2005 55 $511 $488 -4% 10%
    2006 34 $559 $506 -9% 5%
    2007 28 $508 $484 -4% 6%
    2008 10 $592 $547 -8% 5%

    So I could find data on 55 intances of a sale in 2009 whose seller bought in 2005 and fit within the average gain +/- 2 std dev. The average loss was 4%and std 10% so max range is -24% to 16%.

    So if one bougth a placein 2005 on AVERAGE one should expect to loose 4%.

    My conclusion is that we are back to price level prevaling at the end of 2004.

  6. FN

    Sq Ft price calcuate only for ones avaiable so that might not match the average gain/loss as the avergae gain/loss is based on absolute prices for all data for the year.

  7. stan

    “sellers are winning….”

    What???? absurd

  8. Bill

    FN – Interesting

    when you looked at average gain, did you factor in holding period?

    For example, were people who help for 1 year grouped in with people who held for 4 years?

    Also can you clarify the labels of the columns?
    Whats the diff between the first $ stat and the second one?
    Whats the dif between the first % stat and the second one?

  9. FN

    Bill,

    Average gain are absolute gains not considering holding period. IE a person who bougth at place for 100 in 2002 on average sold for 133 in 2009 and a person who bough a place in 2005 on average sold at 96 in 2009.

    Labels :

    Year – The year the seller in 2009 bougth that apt

    count -Number apartment bough in Year ____ that sold in 2009

    first $ price/ sqft prev – Price paid by the seller when he originall bough the apt

    Second $ price/ sq ft curr Price received by the seller when he sold in 2009

    first % avg gain / loss : The average gain/loss (absolute %) for sellers that bought in year ____

    Second % stdev : The standard deviation gain/loss for sellers that bought in year ____

  10. Tiger

    FN, I am glad you found that tax site useful :-). I use it to spy on my building lol. Also big thank you for putting this together.

    So using your curse, you estimate approx 5% drop off the peak of 2005? That seems to align more with what Lori has been saying for months.

    I still don’t see a 20%. To be honest, I think it seems to be more of a number that prospective, or even recent buyers came up with to feel better about their purchase.

  11. Tiger

    thoughts, wow. Do you really think sellers are winning? It is quite unfortunate but regardless of anything some ARE having to sell, and it’s due to pure coincident of their life timing / job, etc… NOT because you are smarter than them.

    I don’t know why you feel the urge to show off your property in every post. We get it; it’s within the ever-important 1/2 mile radius of the path, it has parking, it is very nice, and you got a kick-ass deal 20% off on it.

    Don’t get blinded by your ego, no one is safe my friend.

  12. FN

    Tiger,

    Actually my take is a bit different.

    1. Although I did not share it these number exaggerate the gain a bit. The reason is people who bought pre-compelition in blgds constructed in 2002-2007 like skyclub, 1200 grand, 415 newark, maxwell etc show the best gain and it makes sense as they must have bougth a year or so before the sale date on the tax site. [4 out of 5 best gain for 2005 were guys who bougth from developer]

    2. The loss from peak year ie 2006 is -9% but if you adjust for point 1 may be -11% or so. Also this is from average prices of 2006 to average in 2009. From Peak whenever it was n 2006 to end of 2009, I presume the number will be a bit higher.

    3. Lori’s median/average shows prices today are where they were somewhere in the start of 2006, while repeat sales show prices are at middle (if you adjust for point 1)or end of 2004 levels. That is a reasonably big difference.

    so I think this shows may be both sides are wrong :) Peak to today may not be as high as 20% but surely not as low as 5%.

  13. Eric

    But didn’t Loir say that the peak was in 2007-2008? I’d be interested to see the 2-transaction analysis for that year compared to now. However, it’s likely a much smaller data pool, and there are also likely other factors that affected the sale if a seller’s putting it on the market a year after buying…

  14. stan

    2007 was peak. In 2005 people were still dancing……ala chuck prince

  15. Tiger

    I think if you look at Lori’s earlier post, the big JUMP was in 2005 (when we moved from an average of 350ks to 500ks), then there were a few slight increases, but more or less it seems that 2005 to 2008 seemed flat more or less.

    So yes, 2007 might be the HIGHEST average or median, but it’s only slightly higher than 2006 and 2005

  16. Boneman

    All I know is if Obama screws up bonuses for us here in NYC you can kiss today’s real estate prices goodbye. The only reason they got so high is b/c we got paid big. If he screws with us, there will be a housing depression in this city. That won’t be good for the surrounding areas obviously.

  17. thoughts

    Tiger –

    Please get real – Sellers are winning. Is 500K for a 1200 sq ft place at garden and 5th with a backyard, but no parking and half under the ground a steal??? PLEASE go look for a nice 2 bed, which isn’t a 4th floor walk up, around the 2nd and park area with no parking – they still easily go for over 600K without parking!!

    Absurd? Doesn’t seem like it. Yes, few and far between Sellers in Hoboken are forced to sell.

    Conclusion – Buyer’s aren’t winning in Hoboken unless they get lucky or if they want to live on the outskirts.

    I’m just a realist.

  18. stan

    You continually try to justify your purchase. You are the furthest thing from a realist I can imagine.

  19. Confused

    “PLEASE go look for a nice 2 bed, which isn’t a 4th floor walk up, around the 2nd and park area with no parking – they still easily go for over 600K without parking!!”

    Please provide evidence to support your statement. For once…please. I’ve seen you make statements like the suburbs are dead, urbanization, blah blah blah. Never once have you provided a shred of evidence to back it up.

    And in a mile square city, where are the outskirts?

    Confused?

  20. Tiger

    Confused, that’s thoughts for you. To answer your question: Get a measing tape, find the **exact** 1/2 a mile radius around the PATH train station. Anything outside that area is the outskirts.

    Don’t ask for any statistics or evidence, s/he doesn’t have any. It’s the truth according to the gospil of thoughts. Amen.

  21. laki

    FN, good analysis. Thanks for posting it.

    This chart seems to confirm your numbers (Select New York, click Create Chart):

    http://analytics.radarlogic.com/radar-logic-home/historical-data.aspx

    This shows New York MSA (Jersey, New York, CT) pricing per square foot from Radar Logic (Very robust index, closely watched in finance. Housing derivatives are based on radar logic indices)

    This chart shows that prices now are at the late 2004 level for the whole New York region. The fact that the same is true for Hoboken from your numbers makes perfect sense to me. Hoboken doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Whatever is true for hundreds of other towns in the region on average, will likely be true for Hoboken as well.

  22. yo

    Wow, that website radarlogic shows Manhattan neighborhoods down by about 20% from the peak. If that’s true for Manhattan, Hoboken has to at least be down by that much. But from the numbers on seeing w/Lori’s data shows prices down by 5%. What’s the disconnect here? Lori? Anyone?

  23. thoughts

    Confused –

    In response, here’s the gospel –

    To support my comment regarding what a nice 2 bed a ½ mile from the path costs, I will email some prior sales when I have time over the weekend. In the meantime, if you look at recent sales, you cannot find many nice 2 beds a ½ mile from the path going for less than 600K. That’s a lot of money. Can you find any???

    I agree that you don’t see many sales concluded, but – that just means most Sellers and people are not being forced to sell. No???

    In regard to where’s the outskirts – just look for places that dropped 20% of so….

    Lastly, “urbanization” – it’s what caused the big increase in Hoboken and along the train line in NJ! Also, it’s a big trend with being green.

  24. JC

    Last weeks “wednesday wrap up” has nice 2 BR at 62 Madison Dabo’d at a listing price of $569k. Google maps has it at .6 miles away, but if you give me .1 miles I’ll give you $25,000. Still, the selling price will be below $575,000.

  25. TS

    Madison St would definitely qualify as “outskirts” by thoughts’ definition, I am sure. He probably cuts it off around Clinton or Grand in terms of Western boundaries. And I actually do understand his point (though I can’t confirm or disconfirm the comments he makes about there being no bargains in these areas).

  26. thoughts

    62 Madison is a reach.

    I have a bunch of friends looking for places – they will not look on madison.

  27. stan

    The point is thoughts, prices are at 2004-2005 levels, find some examples of properties within a 1/2 mile of the path that have increased in value since 2005. Show me something that has increased in value since 2005-2006. See below, this took five minutes. prove that sellers will win this stalemate. Prove your point….

    And, my big problem with your argument is that the majority of luxury and desirable residences are more than 1/2 a mile north of the path.

    Check those property records.

    More Info 10/16/09 8695 681 505000
    More Info 03/14/07 8172 160 550000
    72 GARDEN ST #1L

    More Info 08/13/09 8703 590 375000
    More Info 08/01/05 7676 98 505000
    135 GARDEN ST

    151 SECOND ST #3D
    More Info 09/29/04 7394 85 363000
    More Info 08/29/05 7714 288 490000
    More Info 08/31/09 8699 242 400000

    winner winner chicken dinner

  28. thoughts

    I just took a very quick look. There are very (very) few nice 2 beds for sale in a decent location. Here are a few of the listings that I found:

    251 2nd – no parking – 659K
    223 Park – no parking – 629K
    306 Bloom – walk up with no parking – 575K

    These people are not taking much below listing – maybe 5%.

    If Buyer’s were winning, we would see a lot more on the market and greater discounts.

    I’ll search for sales in the past 6 months tomorrow.

    Have a good saturday night.

  29. Bill

    Thoughts,

    Listings don’t mean anything. I can list something for 10% above 2005 prices.

    Find me stuff that’s traded. That’s what counts. Again, LISTINGS MEAN NOTHING.

  30. thoughts

    Bill –

    It’s hard to look back and find past sales, but I’ll try.

    But, what about the point that you can’t find a nice 2 bed (not a 4th floor walk up) east of grand for less than 600K? I’ve had many friends look – there’s nothing at all. There’s no fire sale or Sellers forced to sell.

    Thoughts

  31. TS

    82 CLINTON STREET #6E
    Sold 06/06/06 for $650000
    Sold 12/15/09 for $545000

  32. shortsequalmarket

    So “winning” is living in a place you do not desire and “losing” is being in a nicer rental that has a net lower monthly payment than the seller’s dream (but not achievable) price.

    How can you “win” as a seller if you do not sell?

  33. thoughts

    shortsequalmarket – your assumption is just stupid – i assume your someone that wants to buy, but can’t find anything that you can afford – sorry – the prices are what they are…..

  34. thoughts

    in furtherance of my prior posts – see:

    Sale – 328 Garden (no parking) and 3rd floor walk up – 587K

    Sale – 600 Hudson (with parking) – 675K

    2 bed, good location and a decent looking place gets big $$$ in this market!

  35. TS

    Thoughts,

    You seem to have missed the closing i pulled up at 82 Clinton.

    82 CLINTON STREET #6E
    Sold 06/06/06 for $650000
    Sold 12/15/09 for $545000

  36. thoughts

    i didn’t – i can’t make sense of that building – it always has many units for sale – also a lot of people don’t like looking at newark and observer….

    also – 545K for a 2 bed still isn’t a “steal” or a fire sale. it’s a decent price for a buyer if the unit is updated…. some in that building are not….

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