2010 Mar 8th

The February Numbers – Hoboken Condo Sales & Prices Continue to Lag

The February results are in and there’s not much good news.  Activity is still very low, new listings continue to accumulate, days on the market increased and prices are down.   No surprise there.  The only positive note is that units that have gone under contract are up.  Here is the data:

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  1. carl

    Hi Lori
    Is there anyway you can show the data that u use to come up with the above spreadsheet. I also keep track of the hoboken market and my numbers differ substantially.

    Thanks

  2. Lori

    Well where do you get your numbers from? I’m curious to know why they would be different. Mine come directly from the MLS (so they only include properties sold on the MLS) and only agents can access that. The numbers change, very slightly, as late entries appear. I have no control over that. Unfortunately, there is no way I can share as the MLS is security code protected but you are welcome to meet with me and look over my shoulder as I go into the MLS to confirm that the data is accurate.

  3. carl

    I look at nj tax records. and only looking at residential properties

    AVG SALES PRICE
    SEP_2009 $565,063
    OCT_2009 $547,903
    NOV_2009 $503,232
    DEC_2009 $558,287

    Is what I calculate? Maybe I can send you what I see for sep 09 sales and you can compare to your sheet.

  4. Aaron Miller

    Do the Toll Brothers (and other developer) sales make the MLS? I am not sure, but direct sales from developers may not make the MLS system.

  5. Lori Turoff

    Tax records are way delayed. I believe they enter them manually. Send away – I’ll see what I can do.

    Toll & other developers may choose to put their units on the MLS or may sell them directly through the sales office. Lately, they’ve been listing them as they need all the help they can get.

  6. Lori Turoff

    Carl – are you looking at only condos or also single and multi family homes?

  7. carl

    Its a mix but in sep 09 there are only 3 non condos I believe. I could be wrong on that though. What is your email? I will send over

  8. carl

    If you take out 1125 max 1025 max and the tea buildings(which are skewing the numbers higher) I think hoboken market is down over 10% from the top

  9. Lori

    And if you take the SkyClub and everything on Jackson Street out it’s down less that whatever percentage it is really down. But the market includes all of those buildings. It’s a bell curve – some have held their value some have lost more than average. Chopping off one extreme of the curve just skews the results and presents a false picture.

  10. carl

    Not sure why you would take out sky club which is representative of the biggest flipper building in hoboken from 2004 to 2007 prices rose about 30% next two years down 20%. and i wouldn’t call it an extreme of the bell curve. In 2009 the 4 buildings I mentioned represent 20% of sales at an average price of 821k versus rest of market avg price 510k. So that big of a percentage of much higher housing prices does skew the data and cant compare to earlier years without taking it out

  11. Tiger

    carl, this is an ongoing debate.

    I personally am with Lori on this one. Why take out Maxwell and other high end buildings? If you want to look at Hoboken as a whole, you should include all.

    Remember, when higher end prices drop it introduces a downward pressure on the rest of the market; medium end prices drop as much (even more) since average Joe and Jane can get more for the money, and the lower end properties drop even more as their flaws become more and more obvious to Joe and Jane.

  12. carl

    Im just saying you are masking the data when you have a huge influx of new housing that is 60% higher prices then rest of market. This makes it look like the hoboken market isn’t as soft as it really is. Now 20% off the top is a a big stretch but only 4% is also a stretch. somewhere in between is where the real market is down 10-12% and the way things are going it looks like it is only going to get worse. Especially as these high priced units come down in price dragging the rest of the market down Lori do you have stats on how we stand compared to earlier years on the inventory side

  13. Tiger

    carl, who would have thought, on September 2009, right after Lehman brothers went down that we would be debating whether it is 5% or 10% 18 months later? I honestly was thinking we would be going down the route of Vegas and Cali. Remember, Hoboken was named as the NUMBER 3 most affected town from the wall street meltdown, yet surprisingly it held on strong post the initial shock.

    I am not saying it won’t go down further, it probably will, but what I am learning is that given all circumstances, Hoboken is one tough cookie

  14. Tiger

    ^^ Sorry, meant September 2008

  15. carl

    i agree with that

  16. Lori

    Inventory pre-Lehman was in the 100 to 200 unit range. Now it’s 400 to 500.

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