November is a tricky month for real estate sales. We never really know how much the holidays come into play.Things are not looking terrible. In fact, the November average condo sales price of $517k was above that of the past 4 Novembers ($474k in ’09; $515k in ’08; $479k in ’07; and $493k in ’06).
Of course, inventory and inventory build-up matter, too. But look at this year compared to the past 4 years. Sure, the number of condo sales is down but no more so than in the past. What is also down is the number of new units hitting the market. For the second part of the year, we’ve seen sales of about 50 units per month. Inventory of condos on the MLS is now well under 400. Even with new listings coming on the market it looks like our absorption rate in Hoboken may be headed toward normal.
Do I know this for a fact? Of course not.
There’s been lots of talk about “shadow inventory”, especially with respect to foreclosures. But the fact is that there have been few to no foreclosures in Hoboken. We barely see any short sales here. The foreclosures in the Jersey suburbs are attributed primarily to job losses but Wall Street banks are booking record profits. How many young Hobokenites work on Wall Street and will benefit from this?
Are there people who are thinking of listing who are waiting until after the holidays? Certainly. That happens every year. It will be interesting to see what December and the year-end results show. Now go do your holiday shopping!