2011 Jan 8th

What’s The Single Most Asked Question About Hoboken Real Estate?

This is an easy one – “What is the market doing?” I have my opinion as do many people.  In fact, I often hear other agents going on and on to customers and other agents about what they think is happening but without anything substantive to back it up.  So while I, too, am happy to tell you what I think, or hope for, or even intuit from my day-to-day experience in the trenches, I thought you would be better served by some cold, hard facts & stats:

The Full Year Month-by-Month

Quarter by Quarter

The average 4th quarter sales price of a Hoboken condo dropped about 2.5% to just under $478,782.  A year ago,it was $485k;  in ’08 it was $501k; and in ’07 it was $521k so the trend hear is downward.

Average price per square foot for the 4th quarter of ’10 was $454.  Here, too, we see a downward trend with past 4th quarter results at $472 in ’09;  $525 in ’08; and $550 in ’07.   Looking at median price per square foot, the story is similar.  We ended 2010 at $426 a square foot, down 6% from 2009.

For those of you who prefer a visual, here are some charts:

Average sales price for the past decade:

avg sales price

It is pretty clear from this that the recent direction of Hoboken condo prices has been downward.

Average Sales Price Per Square Foot for the past decade:

avg per sq ft
Here, too we can see a decline in prices since the heights of 2008.  So is all the news bad?  I don’t believe so.  There are two reasons I say that.  One, is that mortgage rates are still very low. Very low.  Despite talk of them moving up, which they have a bit recently, they are still under 5% for a 30 year fixed.  Also, inventory is dropping and activity is not.   Look at this chart which compares units listed (the blue line) with units sold (the red line):

listed v sold

Economics 101 – supply & demand set prices.  If supply shrinks and demand doesn’t, prices should hold steady or better.  We shall see.

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