2012 Oct 11th

The September Hoboken Condo Sales Results

The monthly number are here.  Average sales price dropped slightly (about 4%) from last month but still remain over half a million.  Activity is also down over last month with only 61 transactions recorded on the MLS in September.  Average sales price was down 6% over last September yet average price per square foot was up 3% and median price per square foot was up 8% over last year.

Look at the average and median prices for 3 bedroom properties.  Yet, my buyers still call seeing a 3 bedroom in the 600k range.  That’s a tough order to fill.

Inventory is still extremely low.  We would sell every unit on the market today in 2 and a half months at this rate of sales.  Here are the monthly numbers:

Stay tuned for the 3rd quarter results which will be posted shortly.

 

 

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  1. Mike D

    As a suggestion, you might want to consider rolling 3-, 6-, or 12-month monthly comparisions. Its nice to see monthly data but the numbers bounce around too much month-to-month (especially med $/sq ft) to notice any meaningful trends.

    Many of these metrics are heavily dependent on what types of units (and of course, where they’re located) actually sell each month. If in one month a number of 3+ BR sell, the average/median list/sold goes way up.

  2. Gilby

    This is a bit concerning. With 1/2 the inventory that there was a year ago on the market, a price decrease of 6% is not a good sign. Is the worst really behind us and a recovery well under way or, is the low inventory holding prices up? What happens should inventory rise; will prices fall? All the development in the works will flood the market with brand new inventory at some point, that might not be the best thing.

  3. bz

    Gilby…price comparison alone isn’t accurate for gauging the recover, because average size of the unit also changes. If in a particular month that you have more larger homes closed, you wouldl have a higher average selling price. Med $/sqft gives you a better measurement. Also, many new large buildings under construction in Hoboken are rentals. In my opinion, It won’t be in the market for now, or as long as the rent holds up in current level, which I think will last for a few years at least, if not higher. Many buyers remain on the rental side due to extremely low inventory of condo for sale. The pent-up demand is stronger than many people anticipated. monthly price changes aren’t a good gauge for the real market trend. I’m in RE market research field and I agree with Mike D that the data for rolling quarter, half year, and a year will show a better picture of the market.

  4. Gilby

    Thanks for the information, bz. Sounds like key factors are price and size (or rather price per sq. ft) and the picture gets rounded out by discount, DOM and inventory.

  5. Lori

    Who would like to email me a template for the rolling data analysis you describe? I’d be willing to plug in the numbers.

  6. bz

    rolling average=total sales in a certain period divided by total units in the same period. For the next data point, just slide the time window up or down to the next month/quarter/year.

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