2013 Jan 18th

Some Year-End Figures for the Hoboken Condo Market (and My New Pet Peeve)

I love year end because it gives me lots of numbers to crunch and analyze.  As an agent, the question I’m most frequently asked is “how is the market doing in Hoboken”.  I hear other agents answer that all the time mostly with a bunch of meaningless nonsense.  I like to let the numbers tell the story.  Granted, there are lots of ways to look at it so I’ll give you a few.  But before I do, a digression.

One of the most important decisions most people make in their lives is the one to buy or sell a home.  It often represents the biggest investment you will ever make, as well.  This is serious stuff!  It deserves ones full consideration and attention.  You would think this kind of transaction deserves to be treated with seriousness and respect, no?  Yet I have noticed a trend that is truly disturbing.

Many of the agents I must deal with in the course of  working with you to buy or sell your home no longer wish to pick up the phone and talk to me.  They refuse to write anything down on paper or even in an email. That alone is problematic because then there is no record of what transpired.  These agents find it appropriate to conduct business, serious business, the sale of your home, by text message.  That’s right – your half million dollar or more investment is dealt with in unclear, poorly written snippets of text messages often sent while driving, distracted or who knows what else.  Am I the only one who finds this outrageous?  Would you let your stockbroker trade securities for you via text message?  Or your doctor diagnose you by text message?  What makes it acceptable to negotiate your offer by text?  If you ask me, the answer is nothing!  If your agent is conducting the business of the purchase or sale of your property via text message, it’s time to find another agent.

Back to the year end – here is an interesting chart with the supporting numbers below.  These are the average (blue) and median (red) sales prices on an annual basis for Hoboken condos since 2000:

avg sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks to me like the news I hear everyday on Bloomberg is correct – we are in recovery mode.  What do you think?

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  1. JC

    Agreed. Recovery mode. Not new bull market, not even turn around…but recovery, basing, and bottoming out process. The lack of inventory is amazing. I dont think there is anything wrong with conversing over text but the summation of certain negotations should always be formally written at some point. If you are referring to true price negotiations and real offers, then its just not the right way to do business in my opinion.

  2. Gilby

    Based on this chart the prices are at or exceeding those at the height of the market. It doesn’t actually seen that way on a case by case basis – but, that’s what the numbers are showing. The only thing missing is the adv. size i.e. price per sq. ft of the units. If they are much larger units or the price per sq ft is still considerably lower, than my reading is incorrect and we haven’t quite rebounded back to the top just yet. And my only concern would be, will the inventory continue to shrink or stay in the 100-110 properties on the market? Something that no one can really answer. But, limited inventory will continue to push the prices up, in my view.

  3. Josh

    I think when looking at this, you need to be careful, especially on the mean, based on the number of high end units which were not available at the prior peak. That could bias the new means upwards. Still, solidly looks like a recovery.

  4. Lori

    Keep in mind that at the high end – I.e. Toll Bros. new construction – most of those units are sold through the Toll sales office and never hot the MLS so they are not reflected in these numbers at all.

  5. bettyboop

    My husband & I are looking in downtown JC and we’ve bid on two places in the past 3 weeks that ended up in bidding wars: 1 that we lost & the other we chose not be a part of once it hit a certain price. We just placed a bid on a 3rd property, I’m anticipating the same thing to happen again. It’s slightly frustrating.

  6. Lori Turoff

    Almost every one of my past 10 deals over the past 6 months was a multiple-bid situation. Get used to the new normal.

  7. JC

    New normal for quality properies correct? You arent talking about the new normal for properties across the board, are you? Mortgage rates are at 65 year lows….i used to have a 6.75 rate in 2008 on a high balance mortgage and i rememeber at the time i was completely satisfied with that rate, completely. After refi i have an extra grand in my pocket every month with an additional $400 of principal paydown every month….deleveraging process will be long but many will have more disposable income. Or, many will decide they can afford more house.

  8. Gilby

    As long as mortgage rates stay low/unchanged and the number of properties for sale also remains extremely low, the housing market in Hoboken should remain strong and, I’d anticipate a continued slight uptick in prices. There is no indication that we’ll see more properties coming to market (I guess I should wait until the spring to anticipate that, but I don’t see it happening.) A slight uptick in mortgage rates may just see the market going sideways for a while. Anyone have thoughts on mortgage rates? Is an increase expected with the recovering economy and, what effect might that have?

  9. JC

    Fed said they would keep rates low until unemployment gets down to 6% area. They don’t entirely control the mortgage market but I think when rates start creeping up that will mean the economy is getting better and more jobs are abound which is certainly a positive. So while higher IR may be a headwind the better economy at that time will be a tailwind.

  10. Question

    If things are so great, why do I know at least a dozen decent places still worst 100k less then people paid for them?

    We are not at the height.

    Also, each building has at least one comp killer.

    A few lucky ones are getting out.

    Please are too scared to sell hence causing low inventory and multiple bids.

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