2013 Jun 10th

The May Hoboken Condo Sales Results

The May numbers are here.  Slightly softer than April but not by much.  The big story is that inventory remains low and activity is high.  As a result, the days it takes a property to go under contract is short than it’s ever been.  Median prices still outpace a year ago by a lot.  Look at the discount off of list price – it is almost gone.  The story here is simple.  If you want a nice property, you have to be able to see it first, pay full price or more, and hope the seller will agree to stop showings.

 


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  1. Gilby

    Interesting; having checked the sales every week, I would have thought they would have been slightly better than April, not slightly softer. Regardless prices are holding steady and properties are selling fast which could lead to another uptick in June. I also think that it’s good news that there are more properties on the market. I think the very very very low inventory was causing buyers to retreat until there was more to choose from.

  2. Lori Turoff

    I had the same thought but I agree, the increase in inventory is leveling things out a bit. I’ll post a graph above that will be illustrative.

  3. Zach Turner

    I’m not a statistician–am I wrong to think that the number of units in any given month is small enough that the “average”–and even the “median”–price can be thrown off by a few high-end or low-end sales? I don’t put much stock in the fact that May’s numbers were “softer” than the previous month–I’m eager to see the quarterly results, which theoretically correct better for out-liers.

    On the other hand, I am impressed by the sharp drop in the discount rate and the fact that the “number sold” managed to increase despite a significant drop in the number of new listings.

  4. Lindsay

    Anyone agree that the higher interest rates will stall this momentum?

  5. Gilby

    Lindsay: My guess, it depends on how many of our sales are cash offers and how much rates rise. Cash purchasers would not be impacted; however, if our cash purchase percentage is very high, I worry about the stability of the community (which is mostly a problem during election season) as it would indicate that a lot of properties being purchased for investment and not for people taking up residency in Hoboken. Being that interest rates are very low, my guess is that a slight uptick would not change the trends we are seeing.

  6. Scott

    I don’t think there is necessarily a clear cut answer as to whether the momentum is sustainable.

    In my personal opinion, the best source of data aside from what Lori presents is the Case Schiller Index. If you haven’t heard of this, I recommend Googling it.

    Overall the NYC Metro is:

    161.54 as of March 2013. The lowest since February 2012.

    The all time high on the index was June 2006 at 215.83 (the peak).

    If you compare these data points to other markets, particularly ones where things really went downhill, the LOCAL market is relatively stable but still below peak.

    If you are all cash (investor), you are doing quite well.

    If you are leveraged (primary resident), you will not see significant appreciation for some time, but you won’t be prone to rent hikes.

  7. Lori Turoff

    Keep in mind that Case Shiller looks only at single family houses – not condos.

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