2017 Jun 4th

The May Hoboken Condo Sales Results

Wow. Just wow. A new high for average condo sales prices in Hoboken – it just went over $835k. We’re seeing a 20% increase in sales prices over a year ago. No downturn here in Hoboken!

Oh – and here is the article about NJ real estate in which I am quoted in The Real Deal I told you was coming. They sent me a weird link but it’s starts on Page 11.

 

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  1. ray t

    I’m not sure that is an accurate approach to assessing the health of the market. The 20% increase is being driven by mix (e.g. sale of new building / renovated units).

    If you look at it from a “same store sales” basis, it tells a different story. E.g. non-water view Maxwell 2 bedroom units are not selling 20% higher today than they were a year ago. In fact, it might even be down.

    It would be interesting if someone did the proper analysis to show same sales for the major buildings which will have a lot of data to assess. Even when looking at comps in same building, need to be careful. Did unit 403 sell for 10% more than same layout unit 503 did a year earlier? Or was is that unit 503 had undergone a significant renovation that warranted the premium?

  2. Lori Turoff

    Ray, what’s the saying? Perfection is the enemy of the good? If I have over 10 years of data from a consistent source, and crunch the number the same way, trust me, it tells a story.

    The “mix” does not change that much. I look at each sale, every day. We don’t have weeks of nothing but Maxwell or months of 5th floor walk ups. It’s always varied and the proportions stay about the same. I don’t know what you think a “proper” analysis would be but most of my readers find this quite informative and useful.

    If you would like to see something amazing, don’t worry – it’s coming. I’ve got an analysis that can be building by building or block by block. Stay tuned.

  3. AKS

    Interesting Lori – what do you make of the many properties on the market that seem to be showing price reductions, or seemingly going for lower margins above asking? Also, what do you think drives many units even now, in good condition, selling for $/sf in the $575-650/sf range, with the average indicating $700+/sf?

    Would trust your judgment and experience here, but it feels like most of the price inflation is happening in the $900K price point are flat to up maybe 2% from 1-2 years ago.

  4. AKS

    *most of the price inflation is happening in the 1br, 2br seem to be relatively flat y/y unless in the <$800K range. Condos in the $900K+ price point look to be flattish as well.

  5. Lori Turoff

    I have not seen many price reductions except in the over a million dollar market. Buyers don’t want to pay the 1% mansion tax. The sweet spot of our market is the 2BR under 900k, say from 600 to 900. The most in demand is the 2BR with parking, elevator, w/d. Think of the demographics of Hoboken – babies, babies, babies everywhere. Those MetroHomes style units around 9th St. used to be in the 500s and are now crossing into the 800s. Once we go over that in size (3BR or price) the ‘burbs start looking more attractive and the better schools woo the parents to give up the fast commute.

    Again – I’ve got some amazing software in the works that is going to blow you away. Will have it available shortly. Very granular analysis possible.

  6. AKS

    Is mansion tax an annual dues? If not, I’m surprised $10K makes that much of a difference to folks shopping in the 900k range.

  7. Lori Turoff

    No – it is a one time charge but it does have a psychological impact. People don’t like paying it.

  8. JB

    The information is very useful Lori and if the numbers are calculated consistently , in a monthly basis using the same data , they are valid .

    Sales averages can always have their “exceptions” but these reports are not for specific bulidings or streets – they are averages .

    Sales are up and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see this. Naturally some are selling better than others and it’s safe to say if you are an owner of a typical condo , you are happy

  9. Lori

    Thanks, JB.

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