2017 Dec 5th

The November Hoboken Condo Sales Results

For the first time in a very long time, we had some negative movement in the Hoboken condo market. Look at this year versus last year. That is not surprising. There is likely to be more to come now that we are going to pay the price for being a blue state. Thanks, Congress.

  1. Eric

    I wouldn’t call this negative. If you compare y-o-y the avg size is 50 sq ft less which accounts for the y-o-y decline. I think the key to watch is price per sq ft, which is inline with the last few months and is actually up 4% over last year.

    To really have a consistent and precise tracker I think the Y-o-Y and monthly stats should be limited to similar comps. For example, 2 bed 2 baths with 1 garage spot. The current results, while providing an overall average, could be skewed up or down by a few more studios selling than usual, or a new luxury building that sells out within a month.

    No complaints though, I love this site and look forward to every post! Thanks Lori!

    As far as politics, I’m not as concerned. Looks like the tax bill restored some of the local/state tax and mortgage interest deductions. It’s hard for me to believe the current market strength is being driven by people that are on the brink of affordability. The evidence for me is the strong price growth, strong sales numbers and bidding wars driving the luxury end of the market.

    While I don’t dismiss a 10-15k hit annually as nothing, it’s something comes as a tax return for most people so again, hard to believe that people would be running a deficit throughout the year only to expect to make it up from a tax return that isn’t guaranteed.

  2. Manny

    Fully Agree with Eric. I was going to point out the price per sq ft metric as evidence as well… I think the market is flux and depending on how the month goes you can see some ups and downs…. But the standard deviation of such is very low… On Congress, let’s see what happens…

    Love your site Lori… Let’s not get too carried away with things that have not happened yet….

  3. Lori

    Thanks, guys. Your kind words are sincerely appreciated.

    I wish I had the time to do more granular analysis but that is just not realistic for me. I will be posting the 3 and 6 month rolling averages, as I do every month, and I think that is good at showing the trend line. Will have that and the JC results up in a few days, so check back.

    Agree that many of buyers are not on the brink of affordability (questionable for some of the younger, first-time buyers) but the perception is still damaging and market psychology plays a big role in real estate. Let’s see how it plays out.

    Keep reading, keep commenting. Love your points of view.

  4. JC

    I tend to agree about folks not counting on the EOY tax return money to make their housing numbers work. Maybe they will now get to net more $ in paychecks, especially for pass through entities which would make up for the loss of deducting more taxes/interest. Killing off entirely the AMT would also help bottom lines (but threshold may just get raised). Point is money will be taken away and given back in different areas than before.

    Commercial RE looks to be a big winner. Hedge your homes with investment properties or simply buy VNQ (REIT index ETF).

  5. MRJB521

    Thanks all

    Let’s face it- being a Condo Owner in Hoboken the last 3 years has little downside. Throw in the fact every street is getting renovated little by little equates to higher prices and more demand ( there is only so much space in Hobo). Love the site – keep it up!

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