2018 Jan 7th

The December Hoboken Condo Sales Results

Some big numbers to wrap up the year.  December was one of the strongest months of 2017.  The average sales price for a Hoboken is now well over $850,000.  The increase over a year ago is in the double digits.  Average price per square foot is $750.  Inventory remains low and it is still a seller’s market.  We will be posting quarterly and yearly figures over the next week.

  1. Indianlegend

    What are your projections going into 2018? Still on course for double digit growth in Hoboken?

  2. Josh

    Interesting – I think the math or methodology may be off either on the 1-2-3+ BR summary or the aggregate. The median $/ft by BR bin ranges from $687-$696/ft; however the overall median shows $707/ft. The only way that I could see this being possible is if you’re representing the $/ft of the median priced (or sized) property as opposed to the median of the $/sqft distribution. Average size was up and there seemed to be a slightly higher share of toll brothers properties/other outliers e.g. 2 Constitution #403 ($2.7M/>$1,050/ft). So just as last month wasn’t enough evidence to say prices were down in Hoboken, I’d say this (low volume) month, isn’t enough to say they continue to be on the rise. It’s clearly not a buyer’s market at this point, but aside from the knowing that tax reform certainly won’t help property values, there are some early indicators that suggest future softening.
    -Supply is up by 41% YoY (per the WWWU on 1/3/18 (133 active) vs 1/4/17 (94 active)
    -Despite significantly higher inventory the absolute number of DABOs are down 23% – 44 in December 2017 vs 57 in December 2016
    -The Downtown JC has slowed dramatically in the past few months and seems to be holding it’s breath on the impact of the reval. City projections are, in a word, ugly. The most desirable areas that are cross-shopped vs. Hoboken, Paulus Hook, Van Vorst, etc. are bearing the brunt of the increase – Paulus Hook is looking at a 75% increase per Jersey City’s reval update.

    It’s not all doom and gloom, the market is still strong and EY relocating to Hoboken in late spring early summer should add some demand – just sayin’ there are some initial signs of caution. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with supply and the absorption rate in the coming months…

  3. JC

    Nice analysis Josh. Lori…I’d love to know if any of your buyers at $1mm above are holding off or downsizing their purchases based on the new tax policy of $10k cap for SALT and mortgage interest deduction change. Maybe a post one of these weeks after you have more conversations with clients and other agents. I’m sure your readers would appreciate that. thnx

  4. Josh

    Thanks JC – that’s also a good thought, above $1M you have the mansion tax, which is now also not deductible (presuming at that price-point the buyers reach the cap through income and property taxes)

  5. Lori Turoff

    Josh – I double checked all the numbers and calculations. Yes, the overall median differs from the ones limited to bedroom size categories. Probably because not all properties include the square footage in the MLS listing. When there are a few blanks, I fill them in with the closest neighboring figure as a best estimate. Unfortunately, the data I have to work with is not perfect and the MLS does not enforce agents who submit incomplete listings. It’s all I have to work with and I do the best I can with that. I expect it is close enough to provide information from which you can gain some insight and reach some conclusions.

    JC – I’ve not had any buyers squawk about the tax implications (yet) though they have always balked about the mansion tax. I think these buyers are buying in that price range because they need the space and the few extra tax dollars won’t have any significant impact on their purchase decision. The biggest change I’ve seen is a much higher percentage of buyers with Asian surnames in the upper price tier. That’s been consistent over the past year. I look at the closed sales every day where the buyer and seller names are listed.

    Indianlegend – I believe we will continue to see price growth, at a slower rate, until the inevitable recession hits. When that will be is anyone’s guess.

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