2020 Jul 21st

The June Hoboken Condo Sales Results

The June sales prices are certainly higher than in the past. What worries me is inventory levels. When I first looked at it, I thought I’d made an error but inventory is climbing. Look at the absorption rate. That means it will take 6.7 months to sell the current properties for sale at this past month’s rate of sale. A “normal” market has an absorption rate of about 2 months. What is really strange is the disconnect between rising prices and rising inventory. They usually have worked in opposition to each other.

Here are the numbers:

Here is the three month rolling average of sales prices (Scroll to see the whole chart):

  1. JC

    Hi Lori..hope you and your family are healthy. I think the inventory creep can be explained by the lack of sales in the last few months due to shelter in place coupled with the increase of listings of folks that waited for shelter in place to be done.

    Normally the spring brings a good amount of sales but because of the pandemic this spring buying season is now the summer buying season.

    April/May/June of 2019 had 247 sales
    April/May/June of 2020 had 141 sales

    We’ll see, but as long as folks around here have jobs and mortgage rates are low we shouldn’t see significant weakness, especially for quality with outdoor area.

  2. JC

    I am curious of your thoughts and experiences regarding folks moving to the burbs. Also the possibility of NY City families moving here also because of the virus.

    I’m not sure I buy into the whole suburban flight story. Sure, many have made decisions to move now but I dont believe those fleeing for the burbs will continue into a steady stream over the next many years. I think its a 12 month story.

    Maybe its possible families living in Manhattan that want to get away from the dense city think Hoboken is not as dense, so we see demand there. Maybe they dont want to pay a premium for all the culture and restaurants that they cant partake in since they are closed or barely operational so they move across the river where property is cheaper and the commute is similar.

    Appreciate your thoughts!

  3. Lori Turoff

    Hi JC and thanks for asking – we are all fine and I hope you and yours are, as well.

    I agree with you – while showings were permitted throughout ‘lockdown’ many people/sellers waited until they felt more comfortable. Just as I was freaked out the first time I had to go to the grocery store and now it feels more normal, buyers were afraid to go out looking and sellers were not ready to list. So we are experiencing the build-up from earlier months.

    Regarding flight to the ‘burbs, I think not. Sure, there has been a rush to buy/rent houses in the country – articles about people moving to Sullivan County in the NYTimes recently. But taxes and the commute are still issues in NJ suburbs and while you may get a yard, there are still lots of people around similar to Hoboken.

    City dwellers from NYC may be attracted to Hoboken and JC, as they always have been, but it’s hard to tell at this point. We shall see.

    Stay safe! Mask up!

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