What’s Really Happening in Hoboken Real Estate? Absorption Rate Tells All
Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Hoboken Condos, Market Analysis
We have a bunch of year end statistics I’ve been periodically posting. There is one, however, with which I have real-life, day-to-day experience. I work with a lot of buyers. More than almost any other agent in Hoboken. The problem I’ve seen at every price point and every bedroom size is this – there is simply no inventory out there. My buyers request to see a particular unit, I make the call for the appointment and find out it’s already under contract. They make offers only to learn that there are 2 and 3 other offers on the same property. It is happening more and more frequently. The chart below will help to explain why:
Basically, we don’t have enough inventory. Let me break it down a bit further. Other than the seasonal 4th quarter “holiday respite” the number of properties being listed has dropped steadily. Take a look:
Not many listings at all. We’ve gone from a high of 513 new listings in the 1st quarter of 2010 to a low of 153 new listings this past quarter. That is a huge, 70% decrease. Why, you might wonder? Well, those people who bought at the last market peak (yes, I do believe eventually there will be another) aren’t selling at a loss. They are either staying put or renting out their properties. So we don’t have many units for sale.
And what has happened to sales activity during that same time frame?
There has been a drop recently but not nearly as great. The high was 284 units sold in the 4th quarter of 09 and the low 139 units last quarter. That is a 50% decrease. Going back to the first chart of absorption rate, if listings and sales continue at this pace, it would take only 4 months to sell all the inventory currently on the market. What that doesn’t take into account is that some of those units are real duds. They are never going to sell either because they are drastically overpriced or they are in terrible condition.
Which brings me back to my work with my buyers. I simply have nothing nice to show them. So I show them the duds with the hope that when a really good property does hit the market, they will feel confident enough to be able to make a strong offer before the other buyers out there do.
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The Weekly Wednesday Wrap Up – Hoboken Condo Sales & Activity for the Week of January 18th, 2012
Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Hoboken Condos, Market Analysis, Weekly Wednesday Wrap Up
This Week’s Condo Sales & Activity versus last week’s:
- 202 active Hoboken condo units – vs. 198 last week
- 7 DABOs (Deposit Accepted By Owner i.e. under contract) vs. 7 last week
- 10 Sold vs. 9 last week
- 30 New listings vs. 35 last week
- 8 Price change vs. 6 last week
- 2 Expired listings vs. 2 last week
1 Bedroom & Studio Condos
11 New listings
1 price change
82 Active
2 DABO’s
- 84 Bloomfield St., 2 listed Dec 14 for $345K;
- 211 Adams St., 7 listed Dec 5 for $259K;
4 Sold
- 1501 Garden St., 9I listed Aug 4 for $585K; sold for $585K;
- 311 First St., 3B listed Oct 10 for $369K; sold for $365K;
- 650 2nd St., 5BX listed Sept 30 for $367K; sold for $364K;
- 300 First St., 3N listed Sept 19 for $310K; reduced Sept 30 to $300K; reduced Nov 2 to $275K; sold for $257K;
2 Bedroom Condos
13 New listings
7 Price changes
102 Active
3 DABOs
- 108 14th St., 2E listed for Nov 3 for $299K;
- 700 First St., 4J listed Dec 3 for $450K;
- 1450 Washington St., 417 listed Sept 7 for $661K; increased Oct 10 to $663K; increased Nov 27 to $678K; increased Dec 11 to $688K; increased Dec 21 to $695K;
6 Sold
- 159-161 6th St., 2 listed Oct 17 for $650K; sold for $640K;
- 508 Grand St., 4L listed Oct 9 for $399K; sold for $390K;
- 1025 Maxwell Ln., 1108 listed Oct 10 for $868K; sold for $836K;
- 700 First St., 7K listed Aug 29 for $445K; reduced Sept 23 to $430K; sold for $415K;
- 507 Madison St., 3 listed Aug 15 for $499K; sold for $480K;
- 800 Jackson St., 802 listed July 28 for $520K; reduced Oct 13 to $500K; sold for $503K;
3 Bedroom & Bigger Condos
6 new listings
No price changes
18 Active
- 415 Madison St., 2 listed Dec 8 for $585K;
- 714-716 Hudson St., 2 listed Oct 1 for $875K;
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The December Hoboken Condo Sales Results
Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Hoboken Condos, Market Analysis, monthly results
Before I get into lots of end-of-year analysis, I thought I’d post the regular monthly figures as I always do. So what do all these numbers mean, you may wonder? What I see is a strong end to the year. When you look at the quarterly results this strong finish becomes even more apparent. (See the graph below). We have experienced four consecutive quarters of increased average sales price. The 4th quarter of 2012 ended almost 10% higher than last year. That’s pretty great no matter how you look at it. Still, the most striking change I’ve seen in the Hoboken market has been the shrinking inventory. There simply are not that many units for sale today. I suspect a few agents out there are going to have a hard time making a living this year. But that’s ok, the field could use some weeding out.
On the negative side, there is still one real road block I believe we must confront. It is one that is very particular to our market given the number of young, first-time home buyers in Hoboken. Buyers simply cannot get a mortgage if they don’t have 20% saved up for their down payment. Many would-be buyers have not been in “saving mode” and have nowhere near what they need to get a loan. It has hurt our one bedroom market more than any other. The less-than-perfect one bedroom condos – the older, walk-up units in run down buildings and on the west side of Hoboken are hurting the most. I don’t know how those buyers are suddenly going to come up with the 50 to 60k they need. Many of the potential sellers decide to rent instead as most of these units still can command decent rents. But that is a whole other story.
I’ll be attending an exciting and very interesting real estate and technology conference this coming week. Some of the presenters include the Managing Director of Customer Research for the New York Times, the Director of PR and Social Media for Century 21, the Chief Economist of both Zillow and Trulia, the CEO of Evernote, The CEO of Realogy (they own C21, Coldwell, etc.) the CEO of Realtor.com,the Director of Marketing for Corcoran,the founder of Curbed.com, the Director of Marketing for C21, and Danny Meyer of the Union Square Hospitality Group and NYC restaurant fame. I’m hoping to learn a thing or two.
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