2011 Jan 8th

What’s The Single Most Asked Question About Hoboken Real Estate?

This is an easy one – “What is the market doing?” I have my opinion as do many people.  In fact, I often hear other agents going on and on to customers and other agents about what they think is happening but without anything substantive to back it up.  So while I, too, am happy to tell you what I think, or hope for, or even intuit from my day-to-day experience in the trenches, I thought you would be better served by some cold, hard facts & stats:

The Full Year Month-by-Month

Quarter by Quarter

The average 4th quarter sales price of a Hoboken condo dropped about 2.5% to just under $478,782.  A year ago,it was $485k;  in ’08 it was $501k; and in ’07 it was $521k so the trend hear is downward.

Average price per square foot for the 4th quarter of ’10 was $454.  Here, too, we see a downward trend with past 4th quarter results at $472 in ’09;  $525 in ’08; and $550 in ’07.   Looking at median price per square foot, the story is similar.  We ended 2010 at $426 a square foot, down 6% from 2009.

For those of you who prefer a visual, here are some charts:

Average sales price for the past decade:

avg sales price

It is pretty clear from this that the recent direction of Hoboken condo prices has been downward.

Average Sales Price Per Square Foot for the past decade:

avg per sq ft
Here, too we can see a decline in prices since the heights of 2008.  So is all the news bad?  I don’t believe so.  There are two reasons I say that.  One, is that mortgage rates are still very low. Very low.  Despite talk of them moving up, which they have a bit recently, they are still under 5% for a 30 year fixed.  Also, inventory is dropping and activity is not.   Look at this chart which compares units listed (the blue line) with units sold (the red line):

listed v sold

Economics 101 – supply & demand set prices.  If supply shrinks and demand doesn’t, prices should hold steady or better.  We shall see.

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently No Comments »

2010 Dec 13th

The November Hoboken Condo Sales Results

November is a tricky month for real estate sales. We never really know how much the holidays come into play.Things are not looking terrible.  In fact, the November average condo sales price of $517k was above that of the past 4 Novembers ($474k in ’09;  $515k in ’08;  $479k in ’07;  and $493k in ’06).

Of course, inventory and inventory build-up matter, too.  But look at this year compared to the past 4 years.  Sure, the number of condo sales is down but no more so than in the past.  What is also down is the number of new units hitting the market. For the second part of the year, we’ve seen sales of about 50 units per month.  Inventory of condos on the MLS is now well under 400.  Even with new listings coming on the market it looks like our absorption rate in Hoboken may be headed toward normal.

Do I know this for a fact?  Of course not.

There’s been lots of talk  about “shadow inventory”, especially with respect to foreclosures.  But the fact is that there have been few to no foreclosures in Hoboken.  We barely see any short sales here.  The foreclosures in the Jersey suburbs are attributed primarily to job losses but Wall Street banks are booking record profits.  How many young Hobokenites work on Wall Street and will benefit from this?

Are there people who are thinking of listing who are waiting until after the holidays?  Certainly.  That happens every year.  It will be interesting to see what December and the year-end results show.  Now go do your holiday shopping!

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently 1 Comment »

2010 Oct 11th

The September Hoboken Condo Sales Results

Bank Foreclosure Problems are the Big News Right Now

Fortunately, this won’t be a big problem for Hoboken as we’ve had so few foreclosures or even short sales.  Elsewhere, there is debate as to whether the banks’ halt on foreclosures will lend stability to the market or create even more uncertainty.  Now the title insurance industry is being affected as victims of the fraudulent foreclosures may potentially make a claim against an innocent, subsequent purchaser of the foreclosed property.

September Sales Seem Steady & Stable

Here in Hoboken, condo sales seem to be happening at a pretty even pace aside for the bump up in the Spring caused by the expiration of the tax credit.  Both price per square foot and average sales price rose last month.  I’ll be posting the quarterly results tomorrow but here is the chart for the month of September:

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently No Comments »

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