2012 Sep 6th

The August Hoboken Condo Sale Results

The August results are in and the story is a simple one – there is simply nothing to buy.  This is a story being played out in markets across the country but I have a feeling, Hoboken is a prime example of inventory shortage.

NAR reports that median days on market is a metric for inventory.  NAR statistics show median days on market is down 29.6 percent from a year ago, from 98 days in July 2011 to 69 days in July 2012.  Hoboken’s median days on market right now is 33.  NAR also says that a 6 month supply of inventory represents a balanced market.  Hoboken has 2 1/2.

Take a look at the rest of the numbers:

[tomatoframe width=”500″ height=”830″]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjArozKAIkYjdHBEc2k1bDZzT0dQSkx6dU8tR3Y4cEE&single=true&gid=72&range=a1%3AJ38&output=html[/tomatoframe]

There are a few things here I find shocking – average sales price up 10% over last year, for one.  Median sales price up 14%.   Sales activity is up, inventory is down and prices are rising.

There was quite a bit of discussion on the HobokenMoms yahoo group about why families leave Hoboken.  Is is the schools or something else?  The fact that the average 3 bedroom is now $800,000 is some pretty strong evidence that Hoboken has become an expensive alternative to the suburbs.  One can get an extremely nice house in Millburn for 800k.  Of course, giving up the 5 minute commute to the center of the universe is the trade-off that comes with that house but many out there will make that trade.

 

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently 2 Comments »

2012 Aug 6th

The July Hoboken Condo Sales Results are Here!

Hoboken Real Estate Just Keeps Improving!

Here is the story of Hoboken real estate in a nutshell – sales prices are up, inventory is down, sales activity is up, number of units being put on the market for sale is down.  Two of the classic measures of how a market is doing both say it is a seller’s market.  The “absorption rate” measures how many months it would take to sell out all of our current inventory.  5 months or less is considered a seller’s market.  The current Hoboken absorption rate is only 3 months.  The “discount of list” measures the actual sales price of a property compared to what it is listed for.  That has been right at about 2% this year, a historically low figure.

Another set of figures I believe are very useful for buyers are these:

Avg. Sold  1 bedroom:  385,756    2 bedroom:  552,338   3 bedroom:  804,142

If you are shopping for a condo you typically have a particular size in mind.  If you think you are going to be able to find, for example, a nice 2 bedroom with parking or an elevator east of Willow in the low $400,000 range when the average price is over $550,000 you are going to be facing quite a challenge.

Similarly, if you are a 3 bedroom buyer, look at the average days on market number – only 37.  The competition for these units is fierce.  You need to be the first one to make an offer if you hope to avoid a multiple bid situation.  (I refuse to call it a bidding war).

So there is much to learn from the state of the market before you begin your search.

Here are the charts:

 

[tomatoframe width=”500″ height=”830″]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjArozKAIkYjdHBEc2k1bDZzT0dQSkx6dU8tR3Y4cEE&single=true&gid=71&range=a1%3Ah38&output=html[/tomatoframe]

 

 

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently No Comments »

2012 Jul 8th

The June Hoboken Condo Sales Results

No surprises here – the June sales results show exactly what I’ve been saying here for weeks – there is no inventory in Hoboken.  Sales prices are starting to pick up.  The bottom has come and gone.

Of note – look at the number of days it takes from the time a property hits the MLS for sale and the day it goes under contract.  That number has fallen from 84 to 65 to 47 to 36.  That is a drastic drop in 4 months.  It is 51% lower than it was a year ago.

Closely related to how quickly things are going under contract is the fact that the price at which they are selling is very, very close to the list price.  The ‘discount off list’ is only about 2%.  That’s less than half of what it was a year ago.  For the past several weeks, every property on which my buyers have bid there have been multiple offers.  Bidding wars (I really despise that name) are once again the new normal.

When there is limited inventory on the market and buyers are in buying mode, expect mutiple bids and expect them to be at or over asking price.  Now, this does not happen on every single property.   The quality properties – the good ones which show well and are in good locations – you bet there is someone who wants it besides you!

Absorption rate measures how quickly the current ‘for sale’ inventory would sell out at today’s sales volume rate.  We’ve got just barely over 3 months of inventory right now.  That is a strong indicator of a seller’s market.  There are no signs that this is a temporary fluke or that it will change any time soon.  The rate of sales has been increasing – we went from just 30 units in January to 74 in June.  The rate of properties going under contract is also up in the 70s.

Average sales prices were higher last month than this month due to a few extremely high-priced properties that closed in May.  But look at the median numbers!  Substantial increases all around and median price per square foot is 14% stronger than it was last June.  Enough said – you get the picture.  Here are the numbers:

Posted by Lori Turoff | Currently 3 Comments »

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