Where Is The Hoboken Housing Market Going?
Categories: Finance, For Buyers, For Sellers, Hoboken Condos, Market Analysis
By Lori Turoff - 201 993 9500 or info@hobokensbest.com
Hoboken Condo Sales & Market Analysis Part 2
Yesterday I posted the sales figures for the month of November. They don’t look too bad. In fact, Hoboken condo sale prices were up in November. Here is the comparison to the past two years:
But that’s only part of the story. Analyzing what sold is certainly useful information but it doesn’t address the properties that have not sold. The number of Hoboken condos still on the market for sale presents a different picture.
The Number Of Hoboken Condos For Sale Continues To Climb
Here two informative charts. The first tracks how many condo units were active, i.e., for sale, at the start of each month:
It is quite apparent that the number of condo units for sale has been soaring. Today, there are 513 active condo units in Hoboken. That’s looking just at the MLS, (which does include MetroStop and some of the other new buildings back on Jackson but does not include Maxwell Place.) If price is determined by supply and demand, the supply of Hoboken condos is growing. It seems that the build up results more from dwindling sales numbers than from an abundance of new units being placed on the market.
An important indicator of the Hoboken real estate market is the number of units sold and the number of units that go under contract during a month. Here are those results:
The trend in listings is downward which helps supress the growth in supply a little bit, but the number of units going under contract and being sold are also decreasing. The question is which is happening faster, the build-up of unsold units bloating inventory or the decrease in new listings which limit inventory? The answer seems to be apparent in the first chart - overall, there are too many properties on the market and not enough demand for them. The result? Markets find equilibrium and prices fall.
So Why Were November Prices Up?
It seems contradictory at first glance for prices to rise when demand is decreasing and supply increasing.
The answer may lie in the properties themselves. If you look at the Hoboken condos that did sell in the month of Novemer, they have a few characteristics that stand out:
- 12 were priced well below market - under $500 per square foot.
- 15 were exceptionally nice - in great locations & show beautifully, 3 sold for over asking, some were brand new.
- 5 were brand new construction - not big developers but small projects & gut rehabs in decent locations and a low prices.
The remaining 3 units, from what I can tell, had nothing in particular that stands out as especially attractive, (not price, location, or construction).
Take a look at these 5 “fire sale” units included in the above:
- 611 Willow - the price was dropped almost 15% from the original list;
- 705 Adams - 17% price cut;
- 89 Willow #201 (new construction, luxury building) - 17% price cut;
- 89 Willow #300 - 33% price cut;
- 1125 Maxwell Lane #801 - 19% price cut.
If a Hoboken condo is not drop-dead gorgeous, in a great location, or really and truly priced to sell (and still in a good location and good condition) it just isn’t likely to sell. Buyers are going for the cream of the crop and the bargains - sometimes both.
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Hoboken Condo Sales - The November Numbers Are In And They Are Surprising!
Categories: Finance, For Buyers, For Sellers, Hoboken Condos
By Lori Turoff - info@hobokensbest.com
Hoboken Condo Sales Are Up - Transactions Are Down
Lehman went under, B of A bought Merrill and AIG collapsed mid-September. Since then, things have continued to deteriorate. Here we are, about 2 months later, with some still predicting the demise of the Hoboken real estate market. Yet that’s not what the numbers show - at least so far. The most apparent change was that Hoboken condo sales practically came to a stand-still in November. There were only 36 condo sale closings for the month compared to the average of over 70 a month for the rest of this year. About half the usual deals simply did not take place. Yet the average sales price of a Hoboken condo increased to over $532,000 in November. That’s more than the average for the year of $530,000; more than last November’s $479K and more than November of ’06’s $493K. Here are the numbers (note - I flipped the months to make the chart easier to read):
Not only are sales prices up, days on market are down, price per square foot is up from last month although not as high as it was in September, and average list price is up from last month.
Did Hoboken Condo Sellers Have to Slash Prices to Get Buyers to Act?
There have been predictions that the price of Hoboken condos will plummet up to 30%. It’s interesting to see if sellers are getting their asking prices. The discount off the asking price shows up as almost 4% for November. I went back and looked at the original list price of each property rather than the most recent price (upon which the above chart is based). The result is indeed a bit different. Using the original asking price to calculate the discount off list causes it to rise to about 8%. So yes, some price reductions were required to get buyers to bite. Tomorrow I’ll post this months stats vs. prior years, so come back again for another look.
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The Hoboken Open House Interactive Google Map - 11/29 & 11/30
Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Open House Map
Plan a Color-Coded Hoboken Open House Tour!
We made a nice improvement to our weekly Hoboken Open House Google Map. The property markers are color coded according to condo unit size.
- Red dots are for 1 bedroom condos
- Green dots are 2 bedroom condos
- Yellow dots are 3 bedroom condos & houses
In addition, the Deal of the Week is indicated with a bright, yellow dollar sign. You can ignore the blue markers as they are from last week. (If there will be an open house next week as it saves us a bunch of time). Take a look - it’s way easier to read.
Hoboken Open House Google Map
You’ll notice that there are very few open houses in Hoboken this weekend. A slow down during the holiday season is to be expected. Many people leave Hoboken to visit family or hit the mall. Maybe less buyer traffic will make jittery sellers drop asking prices. There are some good deals out there, especially when you consider that interest rates are down again.
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Happy Thanksgiving Hoboken!
Categories: Hoboken Condos
We hope you have a wonderful day with family and friends. No matter how bad we think things are here in Hoboken, there are many people in the world way worse off than we are so let’s be thankful today for all that we do have.
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How Bad Is It? - Part 2
Categories: For Buyers, Hoboken Condos, Market Analysis
Have Things Really Changed That Much In the Hoboken Condo Market?
by Lori Turoff
The Turoff Realty Team at Prudential Castle Point Realty
It seems like the market has slowed down. But has it? I took a look, by month, of the number of Hoboken condos listed and the number sold. I went all the way back to this time in 2006. Here are the results:
Note - November is only “to date” so it’s less than it should be for the full month.
There has been a downward trend in the number of for sale Hoboken condos since 2 years go. There was a big dip in new listings this September, when all the bad economic news hit the media, but then a spike in October. November is down, so far.
The number of Hoboken condos sold does not show a clear trend. There were an exceptionally large number of closings in March of this year. It may still be too early to see the results of the current economic melt down. Deals that should have been made in September would typically close in November or December. Maybe the low number of condo sales in November is not due to the few missing days, but is a real decline in deal activity.
Absorption rate is a classic way to measure the strength of a real estate market. The average number of Hoboken condos sold each month since the beginning of 2008 has been about 67 condos per month. Right now, there are about 519 Hoboken condo units for sale. At the rate of 67 sales per month, it would take 7.75 months for the current condo inventory in Hoboken to sell out. Keep in mind that these figures reflect only units on the MLS and not those sold directly by the developer (such as Maxwell Place condos sold by the Toll sales office). But then, the numbers also don’t reflect sales by the sales office either. A 5 month supply of housing at any given time is considered neutral. Less than that is considered a sellers market, more a buyers market. According to these figures, Hoboken is not as bad as other areas of the country. Parts of Florida and Las Vegas have years worth of inventory on hand. The recent drop in interest rates should help increase the rate of sales as well.
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